Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from Russian territory, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
