A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses something to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
